Migration accounting model

Root Drivers of Internal Migration

Socio-demographic disparities between countries are instrumental in explaining past migration trends (1970-2020).

International migration is a selective process as the propensity to emigrate increases with education. Selection decreases with development, but the brain drain often turns into a brain gain in the poorest countries of the world.

The brain gain mechanisms holds true in the medical sector.

A net brain gain requires good international connectivity and access to education. In poor countries, the brain gain benefits the richest regions only. Isolated regions with poor education infrastructure incur human capital losses.

Extreme weather shocks have ambiguous effects on people mobility. It is empirically challenging to identify robust and general climate migration patterns from the past decades.

Integration for the 21th century

Socio-demographic changes in general, and population and education disparities in particular, will continue to shape future migration pressures.

Impoverishing poor people does not lead to more international migration from poor countries. Migration responses to climate change will be internal.