Modeling the interplay between internal and international migrations¶
Menashe-Oren, A. (2020) Migrant Youth Bulges and Social Conflict in Urban Sub-Saharan Africa, Demographic Research, Vol. 42, No. 3: 57-98 [Editor’s choice] DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2020.42.3
Sub-Saharan Africa has experienced relatively high population growth, which raises concerns about the potential contribution of large young cohorts, termed ‘youth bulges’, to unrest. Youth bulges, under the right circumstances, can expand productivity and boost economic growth, but they have also been found to enable civil war, corruption, and democracy collapse, especially where resources are scarce. This paper considers youth bulges characterised by high proportions of rural–urban migrants and examines their effects on the likelihood of social conflict in urban sub- Saharan Africa between 1990 and 2013. METHODS United Nations data on urban and rural populations by age and sex is combined with the Social Conflict Analysis Database to create a cross-section time series dataset. Negative binomial models are used to examine the relationship between youth bulges and conflict using country level fixed effects. The study finds that a migrant-based youth bulge does not increase the likelihood of urban social conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. Additionally, female youth bulges, often neglected when studying conflict, are found to increase the likelihood of conflict. The overall disassociation between young rural–urban migrants and social conflict is encouraging. All the same, women were found to play a role in conflict, and women should therefore be considered in future studies. This article characterises the composition of youth bulges – an important factor that has previously been ignored – by examining whether youth bulges composed largely of rural–urban migrants are more likely to increase the likelihood of conflict in urban sub-Saharan Africa.
Menashe-Oren A., Bocquier P. (2021) Urbanisation is no longer driven by migration in low- and middle-income countries (1985-2015). Population and Development Review. DOI: 10.1111/padr.12407.
Across the world, populations have transitioned to inhabiting urban spaces, and in low- and middle-income countries the proportion of people living in cities is expected to continue to increase. Anticipation of this fundamental process calls for a better understanding of the demographic factors that drive the urban transition. By indirectly estimating the joint contribution of migration and administrative reclassification to urban transition in 129 countries using urban and rural population by age and sex data available from the United Nations over 1985–2015, we find that differences in natural increase between the rural and urban sectors explain most of the urbanization over the 30-year period examined. Over the urban transition, the role of migration and reclassification declines and becomes negligible. Despite data limitations, we confirm that it is misleading to view migration as fueling urbanization in low- and middle-income countries.
Bocquier P., Menashe-Oren A., Nie W. (2023), Migration’s contribution to the urban transition: Direct census estimates from in Africa and Asia. Demographic Research. 48, 681-732. DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2023.48.24.
The components of urbanisation are important to understand, since urbanisation is closely related to development. Internal migration was key in historical urban transitions, while in contemporary transitions the balance of births and deaths has been the main driver of urbanisation. Reclassification of rural areas and international migration also contribute to urbanisation. Objective: Unlike previous work based on indirectly measured net migration estimates, we directly estimate in- and out-migration rates between rural and urban areas across Africa and Asia by age and sex, and evaluate the contribution of the balance of these flows to urbanisation. We use 67 census samples from IPUMS International for 28 countries in Africa and Asia between 1970 and 2014 to estimate in- and out- migration between rural and urban areas, based on available questions of residence. We then model age- and sex-specific migration rates using Poisson regression and estimate net migration through marginal effects. Results confirm that, in both continents, urbanisation is not generated by rural-to-urban migration but by the urban population itself, be it through natural growth or through expansion to peripheral areas. In Asia, urbanisation reflects internal migration trends and reclassification decisions to a greater extent than in Africa, where natural growth is the key contributor. In Asia, urbanisation reflects internal migration trends and reclassification decisions to a greater extent than in Africa where natural growth is the key contributor. By using direct estimates, we ascertain the role of inter-regional rural–urban migration in urbanisation. We find that a positive effect of inter-regional migration is counter-balanced by a negative effect of intra-regional migration (combined with reclassification and international migration).
Bocquier, P. & M. Cissé & Y. Schenk (2023). The climate-migration nexus revisited: new evidence from Senegal.
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Menashe-Oren A., Bocquier P. The shifting composition of rural and urban populations due to internal migration. Selected for a special issue of Population Development Review.
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Menashe-Oren A., Nie W., Bocquier P. The educational gradient of rural-urban migration flows in Africa, Asia and Latin America.
Menashe-Oren A., Bocquier P. Nie W., I’ll be back: The prevalence of return international migration in sub-Saharan Africa
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Menashe-Oren A., Bocquier P. (2021) Minor contribution of migration to urbanization in low- and middle-income countries, N-IUSSP.
Urbanization involves a shift of populations from one area to another, and is associated with changing social and economic structures. Here, we use the term “urbanization” to refer to the difference between urban and rural rates of growth (a differential rate of growth). In contrast, we refer to the proportion of people living in the urban sector, and its change over time as the “proportion or percent urban”.
Menashe-Oren A., Bocquier P. (2021), The role of internal migration in urbanisation in contemporary low- and middle-income countries, Document de Travail 22, Centre de recherche en démographie, Louvain-la-Neuve, 40 p.
Across the world, populations have transitioned to inhabiting urban spaces, and in low- and middleincome countries the proportion of people living in cities is expected to continue to increase. Anticipation of this fundamental process calls for better understanding of the demographic factors that drive the urban transition. By indirectly estimating the joint contribution of migration and reclassification to urban transition in 129 countries using Urban and Rural Population by Age and Sex data available from the United Nations over 1985 to 2015, we find that differences in natural increase between the rural and urban sectors explains most of the urbanisation over the thirty-year period examined. The role of migration-reclassification declines and is negligible by 2015. Despite data limitations, we confirm that it is misleading to view migration as fuelling urbanisation in low- and middle-income countries.
Menashe-Oren A., Bocquier P., La migration entre les zones rurales et urbaines est-elle le moteur de l’urbanisation contemporaine dans les pays en développement ? Fiche recherche DEMO 2022(4).
Communications in Conferences¶
Bocquier P., No Urban Legend: Taking the Long-Term View on the Realities of Urbanization in Africa. Plenary Panel Session, African Population Conference, 18-22 November 2019, Entebbe, Ouganda
Bocquier P., Cisse M., Schenk Y., L’utilisation des micro-données de recensements pour estimer les flux migratoires en Afrique : procédures de calculs et modélisation. African Population Conference, 18-22 November 2019, Entebbe, Ouganda
Bocquier P., Menashe Oren A., Veljanoska S., Damiens J., The Disparate Roles of Migration, Reclassification and Vital Rates in the Urban Transition in Sub-Saharan Africa, African Population Conference, 18-22 November 2019, Entebbe, Ouganda
Bocquier, P. Urbanisation and the role of rural-urban migration in Africa 1985-2015 – Evidence from indirect and direct measures of migration in 32 countries, 26 Feb. 2020, CED- Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics, Barcelona.
Menashe-Oren A., Bocquier P., The roles of internal migration and natural growth in the urban transition in sub-Saharan Africa, 1975-2015, IUSSP-BIEA Seminar Looking backward, looking forward: African demography in historical perspective, Kenya, 30 November-2 December 2021.
Menashe-Oren, A. and Bocquier, P. The role of internal migration in urbanisation, Virtual Conference on Migration and urbanisation in South Africa, 26-30 July 2021